" I know" or " the first steps in predictions and forcasting" part 1
Part 1
Don't be afraid of the plague and famine,
And the only fear only that,
Who will say, "I know HOW it need!"
Who will say: "People follow me!
I'll teach you HOW need for you!"
Alexander Galich
Why did I decide to start my blog with this topic? I
don't know...Really don't know...Maybe, for this you need to say "thank
you" to one of my friends, who regularly turns to me for advice and at the
same time invariably, when he receiving answers on his questions exclaims :
"Yes , I know! That's exactly what I thought!!"? :) No matter, in any
case, I thank him for the fact that I didn't have to think about where to
start.
In fact, when you are just starting your first steps
in this field and it doesn't matter who you are - the person, who will come
with the question or the one, who will be answering on this question, first of
all you have to understand that the first condition you will face,- is the condition
of children's openness.
Why "openness" and why
"children's"?
The fact is that if you start to close, then two
obvious things arise-the first, - both sides will receive information with
distortions
and second, you will severely limit the "numbers
of addresses or pages" for reading information.
And so ask yourself, " Is that what I came here
for?"- and if the answer is Yes-welcome! Get your piece of cake instead of
the whole.
As practice shows, the average percentage of accurate
reading of information from those who work in this field is usually about 70%.
Can it be improved? Yes, it can. This is depends from
several factors:
- familiarity with the topic or person
- openness of the parties
- the ability to penetrate or circumvent the barriers
- ability to use different tools to read information
- knowledge of your own "applications" that
you can use, to read / receive information
- understanding the principles of your "
interpreter"
- knowledge of your strengths and weaknesses
BUT! Even if you received 100% accurate information
you still can not say: "I know how to!"...Just because the right to
choose-the right to act does not belong to you, and the one who will do it.
That is why the Church has always struggled with the
soothsayers, despite the fact that it recognized the right of the prophets and
saints to speak. It would seem : "Why?!" "What the
injustice?!!" However, this has a simple meaning - the information, which
you received, would not give you the right to say " I know how to!"
just because, first,- you need to look at the probability lines for at least a
few generations back and forth, that you definitely won't doing , and, second,
- you have no right to decide for anyone what and how he should to do - all
what you can - it is to tell, what you saw/read/got and to give the right to
choose.
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